On 1 October 2026, the federal government's $4 billion Thriving Kids program officially launched.

For most families, very little changed.

The first phase of Thriving Kids is two things: a phone helpline — the Thriving Kids Autism Helpline (1300 654 789), delivered by autism organisation Amaze — and an online resource hub at raisingchildren.net.au. A Medicare-funded developmental health check for 3-year-olds is set to follow on 1 November.

These are not nothing. A well-resourced information service and an early developmental check can make a real difference to families navigating disability support for the first time.

But they are a long way from the allied health therapies, intensive playgroups, and specialist early intervention programs that families were hoping Thriving Kids would deliver. Those "targeted supports" are still being built — by each state and territory individually — and are expected to be fully operational by January 2028.

Which means the hard questions about Thriving Kids remain unanswered, and the families who most need answers are still waiting.

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What Thriving Kids Is Designed to Do

Thriving Kids is the Australian Government's new support framework for children under nine with developmental delay or autism who have "low to moderate" support needs. It is explicitly designed as an alternative to the NDIS for this group — providing support through the places children already live, learn and play, rather than through an individualised funding plan.

The program has three layers:

1. General supports (available now) Information, guidance, and connections — the helpline, the resource hub, and the developmental health check. Available nationally, except the Queensland-specific services.

2. Targeted supports (phasing in through 2027–2028) More intensive supports including allied health therapies, specialised playgroups, and developmental programs. These are delivered by each state and territory under their own program design, with federal funding. Most states are in tender or early delivery stages. Queensland is not.

3. Early intervention The most intensive tier — for children with high support needs who need specialist early intervention. This is still being designed.

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The Most Important Unanswered Question

The $4 billion question is one that the government has not yet answered: what does "low to moderate" support needs actually mean?

This is not a minor administrative detail. It is the criterion that will determine, from January 2028, which children are directed toward Thriving Kids and which remain eligible for the NDIS.

Skye Kakoschke-Moore, CEO of Children and Young People with Disability Australia (CYDA), was direct about the problem:

"Thriving Kids is going to be available for children that have mild to moderate support needs. But at the moment, it's really unclear exactly what that means. It's also unclear how families who might have more than one child with mild to moderate support needs are going to be supported."

Parents of children with autism or developmental delay who are currently on the NDIS, or who are considering applying, are being asked to navigate a system where the central eligibility threshold does not yet exist in published form. The Technical Advisory Group (TAG), which is designing the new eligibility criteria, has closed its consultation and is expected to report to government by March 2027.

Until then, families are making decisions about their children's support needs without knowing whether the NDIS will remain available to them after 2028.

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The Queensland Gap

Every state and territory except Queensland has committed to delivering Thriving Kids. Queensland's LNP government has withheld its agreement, citing concerns about the federal government shifting costs to states without adequate detail or funding guarantees.

Federal Health Minister Mark Butler has been publicly critical:

"All other states and territories, Liberal and Labor alike, are just getting on with the business of developing their programs. So I'm frustrated with Queensland; it's a big state with a dispersed community."

The Australian government has noted that Queensland signed the "grand bargain" earlier this year — accepting substantial additional hospital funding in exchange for agreeing to deliver foundational supports including Thriving Kids. Queensland contends the deal did not come with sufficient design detail.

The practical consequence for Queensland families is significant. While the national helpline and resource hub are accessible, Queensland-based allied health therapy programs, playgroups, and other targeted supports will not be available when other states begin rolling them out. Children and families in Queensland face an indefinite gap — unless the state government changes its position.

Nicole Rogerson, CEO of Autism Association of Australia, described Queensland's position plainly:

"The sheer audacity of Queensland just saying 'I'm not prepared to be involved' is sort of shocking. I understand they're trying to make a political point, but there are families, real children at the end of this that won't have services in the state of Queensland."

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What Families Fear Is Already Happening

The government has consistently stated that no children will be removed from the NDIS until January 2028, when Thriving Kids is expected to be fully operational. Minister Butler reaffirmed this on 1 October:

"We'll have two systems operate in parallel. Children are still able to be enrolled in the NDIS from now until the end of next year in the same way they have been."

But disability advocates and allied health professionals are reporting anecdotal evidence that some children are already being removed from the NDIS, or having their applications denied on grounds that appear to reflect the new (not yet formally operational) eligibility thresholds.

This intersects with the broader pattern revealed this week in FOI documents: the NDIA was already cutting plans and revoking eligibility at accelerating rates throughout 2025 and 2026 — well before the October changes or the August law. Eligibility revocations ran at 498 per week in Q1 2026, four times the rate of the same period in 2025.

For families of children under nine, this means the Thriving Kids / NDIS boundary question is not purely theoretical. It is playing out in real-time decisions that are being made right now.

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What About Children Over Nine — and What About Teens?

Thriving Kids is explicitly designed for children under nine. For older children and teenagers, the picture is much less clear.

The government has indicated it is in discussions with states about supports for children over nine who may not retain NDIS eligibility. But no program or funding commitment exists for this group.

The gap between nine and sixteen — the age at which the I-CAN v6 assessment begins — is the most uncertain territory in the entire reform architecture. A child who loses NDIS eligibility at age nine but does not have a severe enough disability to qualify under the post-2028 criteria faces years with no funded support from either system.

This is not resolved. It is an open question that advocates are pressing urgently.

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What This Means If Your Child Is on the NDIS — or You Are Considering Applying

If your child is currently on the NDIS:
Nothing changes in how your child's plan operates until your plan is next reviewed or renewed. No child will be removed from the NDIS because of Thriving Kids until January 2028 at the earliest. Focus on building thorough documentation of your child's functional support needs now.

If you are considering applying for the NDIS for a child under nine:
The current access criteria still apply. If your child has a permanent and significant disability with substantially reduced functional capacity, they remain eligible for the NDIS. Do not wait and assume Thriving Kids will cover what your child needs — it is not operational yet in most states, and the definition of who qualifies is not yet published.

If your child is approaching the I-CAN v6 age (16+):
From April 2027, participants aged 16 and over will begin transitioning to the I-CAN v6 assessment framework. Teenagers who have been on the NDIS under the children's planning pathway will need a thorough, functional-language evidence base for this transition. Preparing across the 12 I-CAN domains now — while there is still time — is the best protection available.

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A System in Transition — But the Gaps Are Real

The Thriving Kids launch marks a genuine change in direction for the NDIS — away from an individual funding model for all children with disability, toward a tiered system of supports. In principle, a well-funded, well-designed Thriving Kids program could provide meaningful support for children who currently wait months or years for an NDIS plan.

But "well-funded" and "well-designed" are yet to be demonstrated. The first phase of the program is a helpline and a website. The targeted supports that families actually need are 15 months away at best. The eligibility threshold that will determine who gets what has not been published. Queensland — Australia's third most populous state — has not signed up.

For families navigating this system right now, the most important thing is to document what their child's genuine support needs are — and to build that evidence base in language that will be credible in any future assessment, whether under the NDIS or an alternative framework.

The documentation you build today will be useful in 2026, in 2027 when the I-CAN v6 begins, and in 2028 when the new eligibility criteria take effect. There is no version of this story where a thorough, specific, functional evidence base does not matter.

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Sources: ABC News (1 October 2026), NDIA (ndis.gov.au/news/11706), Department of Health (health.gov.au — Thriving Kids), Children and Young People with Disability Australia (CYDA), Autism Association of Australia, SBS News (1 October 2026).

ICANReady is designed to help NDIS participants and families document functional support needs across the 12 I-CAN v6 domains. For children who will eventually transition to the I-CAN v6 framework at age 16, building a consistent evidence record now provides the strongest possible foundation for that assessment.