New Government Modelling on the NDIS Reforms

What the numbers mean for your I-CAN v6 preparation

Disclaimer: This article draws on government modelling disclosed during Senate proceedings and publicly reported as at 31 May 2026. The NDIS Amendment Bill (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) has not yet been passed into law and is before a Senate inquiry. Participants should monitor updates at ndis.gov.au and consult their Support Coordinator or a disability advocate for advice specific to their situation.

---

For much of 2026, discussions about NDIS reform have involved projections and forecasts. In late May, government modelling disclosed during Senate proceedings put specific numbers to what the proposed changes would mean for people currently on the scheme — figures that have since been widely reported by disability organisations and national media.

Understanding those numbers is not about generating anxiety. It is about being well-informed — and taking practical steps that are available to you right now.

---

What the Modelling Shows

Government modelling disclosed during Senate proceedings and reported by People with Disability Australia (PWDA) and the ABC in late May 2026 projects two headline figures:

• 241,000 existing NDIS participants are expected to leave the scheme within four years of the new eligibility rules commencing
• Approximately 350,000 fewer people are projected to be on the NDIS by 2031 than previously forecast

To put that in context: the scheme currently supports approximately 760,000 Australians. The modelling projects a reduction of roughly one in three participants over five years.

The modelling also identifies Social and Community Participation supports as the single largest area of proposed savings — accounting for $13.2 billion over four years.

These are the government's own projections, not advocacy estimates.

---

Social and Community Participation: The Most Misunderstood Domain

Social and Community Participation is Domain 12 in the I-CAN v6 framework. It also appears to be the most frequently mischaracterised in public discussion.

It is worth being precise about what this domain actually covers.

Social and Community Participation does not primarily fund recreational activities or lifestyle preferences. It funds the support people need to safely leave their home, maintain relationships, attend appointments, participate in civic and community life, and avoid social isolation — all at a level consistent with what would be expected for someone of a similar age without a disability.

For many participants, this means the support that makes employment possible. For others, it is what enables them to attend medical appointments, maintain relationships with family and friends, or simply spend time outside their home in a way that is safe and manageable.

The government's own modelling notes that the proposed reductions in this domain would disproportionately affect people with psychosocial disability, people with Down syndrome, and people with visual impairment.

If you or someone you support falls into one of these groups, Social and Community Participation is a domain worth documenting with particular care in your I-CAN v6 assessment.

---

What This Means for Your I-CAN v6 Assessment

The I-CAN v6 assessment is the tool that will determine eligibility and funding levels under the proposed new rules. It measures your functional capacity across 12 domains — not by diagnosis, but by the actual impact of your disability on your daily life.

This distinction matters.

An assessor reviewing your I-CAN v6 results will be looking for:

• Specific, concrete examples of how your disability affects each domain — not general statements
• Consistency across domains (if you describe needing significant support in one area, related areas will be examined in kind)
• Evidence from your support network — what your treating team, support workers, carers, and family members observe day to day
• The frequency and variability of your needs — including on difficult days, not just average days

A plan that accurately reflects your needs begins with an assessment that accurately captures your experience.

---

The 12 Domains Work Together

One important thing the current news cycle can obscure: all 12 I-CAN domains matter equally in your assessment. Social and Community Participation is receiving attention because it is where the largest funding reductions are proposed — but focusing only on that domain would give an incomplete picture.

For example:

• Someone with a progressive neurological condition might have significant needs in Self-Care and Mobility that are not yet fully visible in day-to-day observation
• A person with psychosocial disability might have their most significant support needs in Health and Wellbeing and Interpersonal Interactions, which are often underrepresented in assessments
• A participant with communication difficulties might struggle to articulate their needs during an assessment, making advance preparation across all domains particularly important

The I-CAN v6 framework generates an overall picture from across all 12 domains. A thorough preparation process gives you the opportunity to make sure that picture is accurate before the assessment day.

---

What "Good Documentation" Actually Looks Like

Across all 12 domains, assessors respond well to the same qualities in participant accounts:

Specificity over generality. "I cannot prepare meals safely without support" is more useful to an assessor than "I need help around the house." Describe what happens — and what does not happen — when support is not available.

Typical days and difficult days. Many conditions fluctuate. An account that only reflects your best days will underrepresent your needs. An account that only reflects your worst days may seem inconsistent. Describe both, with context.

What support actually makes possible. Rather than only describing limitations, explain what becomes possible — and safe — with the right level of support. This frames your needs within the purpose of the scheme.

Consistency with your existing evidence. Your assessor will have access to reports from your treating team. Where possible, your account should be consistent with — and complementary to — what those reports describe.

---

Your Rights During and After the Assessment

The proposed eligibility changes are not yet law. As at 31 May 2026, the NDIS Amendment Bill is before a Senate inquiry, with the Coalition indicating it will not support the government's timeline without further process.

Regardless of how the legislative process unfolds, a few things remain constant:

• You have the right to an internal review of any NDIS planning decision within three months of receiving it
• You can request a review if you believe your plan does not accurately reflect your support needs — this applies both to new plans and to plans that are reduced at reassessment
• If an internal review is unsuccessful, you can apply to the Administrative Review Tribunal (ART)
• Disability advocates can support you through both assessment preparation and review processes at no cost — find your local advocate through the Disability Advocacy Finder at ndis.gov.au

---

A Practical Step You Can Take Now

The I-CAN v6 assessment is a structured conversation. Preparing for it thoughtfully — across all 12 domains, with specific examples and consistent reasoning — is the most meaningful thing you can do in the current environment.

ICANReady is designed to help you do exactly that. You walk through each of the 12 I-CAN domains at your own pace, describe your daily experience in your own words, and receive a structured preparation document that you can use with your assessor, your support coordinator, and your treating team.

Your first two assessments are free, with no credit card required.

---

For further reading, see our guides on what the NDIS Amendment Bill 2026 contains, the 12 I-CAN domains explained, and how to describe your support needs clearly.